Interactivity fosters Bayesian reasoning without instruction

Abstract

Successful statistical reasoning emerges from a dynamic system including: a cognitive agent, material artifacts with their actions possibilities, and the thoughts and actions that are realized while reasoning takes place. Five experiments provide evidence that enabling the physical manipulation of the problem information (through the use of playing cards) substantially improves statistical reasoning, without training or instruction. Although they often go unnoticed, the action possibilities of the material artifacts available and the actions that are realized on those artifacts are constitutive of successful statistical reasoning, even in adults who have ostensibly reached cognitive maturity.

Publication
In Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 144(3), 581-603.
Gaëlle Vallée-Tourangeau
Gaëlle Vallée-Tourangeau
Professor of Behavioural Science

My research focuses on understanding how people handle risk and uncertainty. How they perceive and communicate risks, how they make decisions in the face of uncertainty.